Special Report

FUTURE CITIES

AS THE WORLD’S URBAN POPULATION GROWS, SO TOO DOES THE CHALLENGE TO THOSE CHARGED WITH ENSURING SUSTAINABILITY. FLEMMICH WEBB OUTLINES THE WAY AHEAD

History has a momentous new date to add to the record: 23 May 2007. On this day, the number of city-dwellers overtook the number of rural-dwellers for the first time, according to scientists from North Carolina State University and the University of Georgia. The UN has since predicted that, by 2030, urban-ites will represent 60 per cent of the world’s population. For those who find employment in cities and free themselves from the poverty of subsistence farming, this might be considered a good thing. But for the planet in general, increasing urbanisation and the associated loss of land will have dire consequences if allowed to continue unchecked.

Cities are enormous consumers – to support the predominantly urban-based lifestyles of a typical North American and European requires the resources of five and three earths respectively. Just how voracious cities are was demonstrated in the 2002 report, City Limits: A Resource Flow and Ecological Footprint Analysis of Greater London. This found that the ecological footprint of Londoners was 49 million global hectares (a productivity weighted measurement of area), which was 42 times the city’s bio-capacity and 293 times its geographical area. Earlier this year, The Nature Conservancy and Harvard University published a study, The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation, which found that humans are building the equivalent of a city the size of Vancouver every week, and concluded that if urban planning is not improved, animals, plants and natural resources will disappear for good.

In light of the environmental damage caused by cities, there have been moves to come up with new approaches to their planning, design, construction and operations.

Not before time, says Christopher Flavin, president of the Worldwatch Institute. ‘Cities – and the more than three billion people who live in them – are responsible for most of the world’s environmental problems, from local water pollution to global climate change. Unless they follow a more

environmentally sustainable development path – reducing pollution and minimising resource consumption in the decades ahead – urban and rural people alike will face a future of declining living standards and growing political instability.’

What is the definition of a sustainable city? There are many variations, including the following defined during the Urban 21 Conference in Berlin in July 2000: ‘Improving the quality of life in a city, including the ecological, cultural, political, institutional, social and economic components, without leaving a burden for future generations.’ It’s an admirable goal, but in reality a tall order.

For London to be ecologically sustainable by 2050, it will have to reduce its environmental footprint by 80 per cent. The challenge is so great that some do not believe it is possible for a city to be truly sustainable. ‘In one sense, there can be no such thing as a completely “sustainable city” – the term is an oxymoron, in that all cities must rely on their hinterlands for food, fuel, water, resources and so on and therefore cannot have a zero ecological footprint,’ says Professor Bob Evans from the Sustainable Cities Research Institute. ‘However, a sustainable city must be understood as one that is continually striving to reduce its impact on the environment and to provide a sustainable pattern of living for all its citizens.’

Despite this caveat, there has been a concerted effort for some years to make cities more sustainable. In 1994, 80

European local authorities signed up to the Aalborg Charter, which encourages cities and towns to work towards sustainability and develop local action plans. Inspired by Agenda 21, which set out a global agenda for sustainability at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, it has now attracted more than 2,000 European local and regional authorities from 34 countries, complementing the work of other groups such as the UN Sustainable Cities Programme.

There are some examples, too, of sustainable cities in action. Perhaps the most famous is Curitiba, the capital city of the Brazilian state of Paraná and home to the largest economy in the southern part of the country. It is famous for its rapid transit one-fare bus system, successfully introduced for around one per cent of the cost of a new metro system. And although it faces the same problems of poverty, overcrowding, pollution and limited public funding as most other cities, its planners have managed to devise inexpensive and creative solutions to maintain the environment, create employment and attract new business.

Another project, albeit in the early stages of construction (earth has just been broken) is Wanzhuang eco-city in China’s Hebei Province. The 80sq km project includes 15 existing villages with a total population of 100,000, which the government wants to develop into a city that will accommodate a population of 330,000 by 2025.

Historic buildings and street layouts will be retained as the footprint for the new city, while the villages will be expanded to create it, connected by walking, cycling and public transport routes. Water recycling, public transport and the creation of green spaces all feature in the master plan designed by Arup engineering, planning and design consultants.

Malcolm Smith, a director at Arup, says: ‘Cities can be sustainable, but we need to view them as part of the living landscape rather than commodities. Healthy cities rely on suitable densities, living in balance with our environment, and understanding the flow of resources.’

The company is also involved in Dongtan, a proposed eco-city near Shanghai. Other projects in the pipeline include Masdar, 17km outside Abu Dhabi, designed by architectural firm Foster & Partners. The city will be zero waste and zero carbon, and will be totally powered by solar and other renewable energy sources.

Of course, it is much easier to plan a sustainable city from scratch – a far bigger challenge lies in ‘retrofitting’ old cities, trying to create sustainability within often unsuitable, ancient infrastructures. It is not impossible: Stockholm and Malmö, Sweden; Odense and Copenhagen, Denmark; Amsterdam and Utrecht, Netherlands; and Freiburg, Germany are all renowned for their efforts to become more sustainable.

But these are just drops in the ocean when compared to the scale and speed of the work that needs to be done. The success or failure of the sustainable cities movement comes down to two factors: political will and investment. Will Western governments find the money to radically overhaul existing cities and ensure new developments adhere to the highest sustainable standards? Will emerging economies bypass the unsustainable models of traditional cities and create new eco cities of the future? If they do not, 23 May 2007 might become a momentous date for a second reason: the day the world as we know it began a headlong plunge into environmental catastrophe.